Robert Bealgehole, Emeritus Professor, University of Auckland and Founder and Chair, ASH, believes New Zealand is on the cusp of making history – soon to be one of the first truly smokefree nations.

The oped is published on NZ Herald Premuim.

THE FACTS

• New Zealand is nearing a smokefree status, with daily smoking rates under 7%.
• Vaping has significantly contributed to the decline, especially among Māori, halving rates in six years.
• Youth smoking has nearly disappeared, with only 1% of 14- and 15-year-olds smoking daily.

New Zealand is on the cusp of making history – soon to be one of the first truly smokefree nations.

In just six years, smoking rates have plummeted. Fewer than 7% of adults now smoke daily – our target of 5% is within sight.
This is a monumental public-health... victory, achieved by helping people who smoke to quit, not treating them as “fiscal heroes” – a term David Seymour used.

Before 2018, we were way off course for the 2025 target; it was unlikely to be achieved until after 2040 – and beyond 2060 for Māori.

But a pragmatic shift to safer and cheaper vapes has changed the trajectory. Vapes supply nicotine without the tar and toxins in tobacco smoke that kill over half the people who smoke long-term.

From around 2015, vaping started to gain traction – reaching 11% of adults by 2023 – coinciding with the sudden decline of smoking. The drop has been steepest for Māori, with the rates halving in six years. This progress is exceptional: it took Pākehā more than four decades to achieve the fall in smoking achieved by Māori since 2018.

However, despite this extraordinary progress, the narrative is framed as failure, eg “Smokefree 2025 gone up in smoke, says health group” – referring to the repeal of the 2022 smokefree legislation.

It’s true not everyone will reach 5% smoking by 2025. Māori women, who had the highest rates of smoking of any group, will reach the target by 2030, if current trends persist uninterrupted.

And we already have a smokefree generation – youth smoking has all but disappeared. Ash’s Year-10 survey reports only 1% of 14- and 15-year-olds smoke daily, and young adults under 25 have seen rates tumble from 25% to just 4% over the past decade.

Youth vaping is a valid concern. Even here, the data tell a nuanced story. Most youth vaping is experimental, not habitual.

A rapid rise in youth vaping occurred during the regulatory vacuum up until 2021, when long-overdue vaping regulations started to slow down uptake. So far, there is no evidence that teen vaping leads to smoking. With tighter regulation now coming into force and better youth education, young people can be safeguarded without undermining quitting efforts by adults who are at the highest risk.

Public distrust of the tobacco industry is justified. Yet many big tobacco companies now supply less harmful nicotine products, such as vapes and devices that heat, not burn, tobacco. The critical task is to regulate the industry, effectively enabling adult smokers to switch, while preventing youth uptake.

Looking towards the 5% target, approximately 80,000 more people must quit smoking. Traditional stop-smoking services lack the reach. What matters now is momentum: targeted media campaigns and community programmes tailored to high-risk groups; subsidised vapes and follow-up support for hospital patients over 45 with heart or lung disease; and bolstered GP-led cessation efforts.

Vaping has helped many – but it’s not a silver bullet. We should also consider legalising and regulating synthetic-nicotine pouches, regarded as among the safest alternative products. Already available via the black market, bringing them under regulation would allow for quality control, responsible marketing and youth safeguards. Simultaneously, we must tighten restrictions on cigarettes – the most harmful product.

Even after reaching the target, approximately 200,000 New Zealanders will still be smoking. Above all, we need compassionate, stigma-free programmes and policies. We should not get distracted by a narrative of failure.

New Zealand is leading the world in reducing smoking. It’s time to recognise our success – not only to celebrate, but to protect our gains, strengthen our commitment and inspire others to follow our lead.