New Zealand’s smoking rates have fallen at an unprecedented pace in recent years, marking a decisive shift in the country’s long-running battle against smoked tobacco, according to new research. 

The study, published in The Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific, shows that the rate of decline in smoking rates increased five-fold from 2018/19, following decades of slow but steady progress under traditional tobacco control measures endorsed by the World Health Organization (WHO).

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanwpc/article/PIIS2666-6065(26)00086-6/fulltext

The rapid acceleration coincided with the increased uptake in vaping,  which is now the most used method for adults to quit smoking. 

Lead author Emeritus Professor Robert Beaglehole said the findings confirm a clear break from past trends.

“Adult daily smoking has now fallen to below 7%, which is among the lowest rates in the world, with the most striking progress seen among Māori and younger adults.”

“Māori smoking rates have halved in just six years, representing a major gain in reducing long-standing health inequities. As far as we know, no other population in the world has achieved such a rapid decline in smoking.”

ASH Director Ben Youdan says the acceleration coincided with the shift to vaping. 

“There is high quality evidence vaping is among the most effective ways to quit smoking. We saw rapid shifts to vaping when the previous Government began New Zealand’s evidence-based endorsement of vaping as an effective quitting aid. 

Adult vaping increased from less than 1% in 2015 to around 12% by 2024/25, with even higher uptake among Māori,” said Youdan. 

While the study does not prove cause and effect, it finds a “close alignment” between increased vaping and the accelerated fall in smoking.

“New Zealand’s experience suggests that reducing the harms of smoking with smoke-free nicotine alternatives reduction, alongside traditional tobacco control policies, can accelerate reductions in smoking,” Beaglehole said.

The research notes that youth smoking has nearly disappeared, with daily smoking among teenagers around 1%.

Although youth vaping rose earlier in the decade, tighter regulations introduced from 2021 have seen those rates decline. Since 2021, the proportion of 14-15 years olds who vape regularly has halved. 

Despite the rapid gains, smoking rates have now begun to plateau below 7%, presenting a new challenge

Remaining smokers are increasingly concentrated among Māori communities, people in more deprived areas, and older adults, particularly those over 45.This reflects a shift toward more dependent, harder‑to‑reach and under-served smokers.

The authors conclude that future progress will depend on more targeted and equitable approaches, rather than broad population-wide measures alone.

“There is good evidence that nicotine dependence may be higher in older, long term smokers who live in higher deprivation areas. The remaining smoking burden is concentrated in communities that need tailored, compassionate support,” said Beaglehole. 

Combining traditional tobacco control policies with regulated harm reduction is likely to be critical to sustaining progress towards the Smokefree goal of less than 5% of all population groups smoking.

Tobacco will likely kill two out of every three long term smokers. Whilst not risk free, vaping presents only a small fraction of the harms, and can help manage nicotine withdrawal without the cocktail of deadly poisons found in tobacco smoke.